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In Foreign Affairs

What if Russia really turns off the gas?

9th March 2022 Matthew Patridge

What if Russia really turns off the gas? Pin It

Russia has for the first time threatened to shut down the gas tap to Germany if there would be sanctions on the import of Russian oil. Russia supplies about 40% of the gas in Europe. What if Putin also carries out his threat? One industry after another may fail in a domino effect of an epic scale.

While the Kremlin threatens to shut down the gas tap to Europe, and the US curbs the import of Russian fossil fuels, Brussels is deploying heavy artillery to get under Putin’s energy yoke. The European Commission on Tuesday presented a far-reaching new energy strategy with which it wants to permanently get rid of Europe’s addiction to Russian gas. It will isolate Putin further,but energy prices are already skyrocketing. Will Europe’s new strategy help? Or will it become a costly affair for millions of citizens and businesses? Four questions about the Brussels struggle for energy independence, and against the Russian ‘aggressor’ Putin.

According to the European Commission, gas imports from Russia could already be reduced by two thirds in the coming year. The rest will then be phased out in the coming years, according to a plan presented by the Commission on Tuesday. Brussels is mainly looking at the mandatory build-up of gas reserves and a faster transition to renewable energy.

According to the European Commission, dependence on Russian gas should be reduced well before 2030. The EU wants to get more liquefied gas (lng) from the US and Qatar, among others, and is increasing the targets for renewable energy by 2030. For example, more biogas and hydrogen will be imported and the use of fossil energy in the home should be reduced faster.

By 2030, the measures would save 155 billion cubic meters of gas, which is as much as the total volume from Russia. Two thirds of these could be saved within a year. Last year, 45 percent of the European gas supply consisted of Russian gas.

“It is incredibly difficult, but it is possible if we are willing to go even harder than we did before,” said Frans Timmermans, vice-president of the European Commission.

He also sees a role for the consumer. “By lowering the thermostat in the house, by making choices that save energy, you can contribute substantially to reducing energy consumption and making us stronger towards Russia.”

In order to accelerate the transition to renewable energy, the Commission wants to speed up the process of applying for permits for wind turbines, for example

“We cannot speak of a revolution if it takes seven years to get a permit for a windmill,” said Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for energy.

In addition, it will be mandatory for companies to fill the gas stores “on EU territory”. At the moment it is more voluntary. Only in Germany are companies obliged to have the surcharges filled by at least 90 percent every year on December 1st.

The commission is now taking over, although the target date will be 1 October. In addition, it wants transport to and from storage to be free, in order to make storage as attractive as the direct supply of gas.

 

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