Over the next 10 years, the consumers will continue to have a choice of pork, and the consumption will be 13 percent more, according to a recent forecast by the OECD (Organisation for Economic co-operation and Development) and FAO (Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations.
Global meat production is expected to continue to grow over the next decade, but at a slightly slower pace than in the past decade. Compared to the average of 2018-2020, total meat production will increase by 13 percent by 2030. The overall increase in meat consumption is driven by poultry production, which will increase by 17 percent by 2030 compared to the base of average consumption in 2018-2020.
No growth trend in EU
For 2030, pork production on the basis of average consumption is expected to increase by 13 percent in the period 2018-2020. However, until 2023 African swine fever production will remain below previous peak levels, after which a return to steady growth is expected. China is expected to produce pork again in 2023 as it did before African swine fever. Unlike most regions, pig production in the EU and the UK will not follow a growth trend, driven by environmental concerns and public opinion.
Growth of poultry due to swine fever
The increase in global meat consumption over the next decade is largely due to income and population growth in developing countries. International meat trade will therefore increase in response to growing demand from Asia and the Near East, where demand growth is greater than production growth. The overall increase in meat consumption is driven by poultry production, which will increase by 17% by 2030. Poultry benefits from favourable price ratios between meat and feed and the short production cycle allows for rapid genetic improvement.
According to the OECD-FAO, this will help to increase the popularity of poultry meat, especially in relation to the production of ruminant meat. From the consumer’s point of view, poultry is also seen as a healthier option and has a lower price. Asia is showing one of the strongest growth in poultry meat, partly due to the current shortage of pork caused by ASF, which improves the popularity of poultry in the medium term.
Cattle and sheep
Beef production is expected to increase much less in the next decade, by only 6%. Mutton production is relatively small on a global scale, but a higher 16% increase is expected by 2030. This is mainly due to growth in Asia, especially in China, Pakistan and India. Production is expected to remain stable in the EU and the UK. “