In its third forecast for the 2022 harvest, COCERAL sees the total grain harvest in the EU-27+UK at 309.5 million tonnes. This would be higher than the 305.6 million tons predicted in March, but lower than the 312.0 million tons harvested in 2021

Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected to be 143.0 million tonnes, an increase from the 141.3 million tonnes in the previous forecast but lower than last year’s 143.9 million tonnes. Especially for Spain, the forecasts have improved due to the timely rainfall.

Barley production in the EU-27+UK in 2022 is estimated at 60.0 million tonnes, just over 59.4 million tonnes last year. The EU-27+UK maize harvest in 2022 is now estimated at 66.0 million tonnes (previous forecast: 67.3 million tonnes; 2021: 67.2 million tonnes).

The harvest of rapeseed in the EU-27+UK is estimated at 19.5 million tonnes compared to 19.3 million tonnes expected in March and 18.5 million tonnes last year.

Wheat futures in Chicago fell on Chicago and Euronext, after Russian president Vladimir Putin agreed to unlock grain cargoes blocked in Ukrainian ports. Russia is ready to facilitate the unhindered export of grain from Ukrainian ports in coordination with Turkey, according to a Kremlin publication of talks with president Erdogan.

Erdogan told Putin that peace must be established as soon as possible and that Turkey is ready to take on a role in an “observation mechanism” between Moscow, Kiev and the United Nations, if an agreement is reached.

In addition to the death and devastation sown by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war and the West’s attempt to isolate Russia as punishment has greatly increased the price of grain, cooking oil, fertilizer and energy, harming global growth. During the discussion of the situation in Ukraine, emphasis was placed on ensuring safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas and eliminating the mine threat in their waters, the Kremlin said about Putin’s conversation with Erdogan.

“Vladimir Putin noted the readiness of the Russian side to facilitate the unhindered transit of goods by sea in consultation with Turkish partners. This also applies to the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. According to the Kremlin, Putin added that if Western sanctions are lifted, Russia could ” export significant amounts of fertilizers and agricultural products.”

It was not immediately clear which Ukrainian ports Putin was talking about. The main grain export ports of Ukraine are Chornomorsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Kherson and Yuzhny. At least some of these ports are already under Russian administrative and military control.