The chances of the European Union and the United Kingdom managing to regulate the Brexit properly are only 30-40%. This probability calculation comes from senior British officials on Downing Street, The Times and The Spectator report. The negotiations on an agreement on the Brexit have almost run aground. One of the main points of disagreement seems to be the British plans for state aid to companies. For example, the British government maintains that it wants to pump a lot of money into, among other things, the technological sector.

Another thorny issue is fishing. In British waters, fishermen from other countries fish a lot and they depend to a large extent on what they catch there. In a deal with Brussels, the London government wants to stipulate that the share of British fishing boats in the total catch is to be doubled from a quarter now to half the total yield. The EU prefers to stick to status quo.

About 35% of the value of Dutch fishermen’s catch comes from British waters for example. Some fish, such as herring and mackerel, are mostly caught in British waters.

The UK has already left the EU, but according to plans, everything will remain the same until the end of this year, if there is to be an agreement on the Brexit. Without agreements on trade relations, there will be a ‘no deal Brexit’ with potentially serious consequences for the sides.