On Wednesday, after the appearance of the president of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell against the dollar, the euro recorded around $ 1,1940.
It seems that the Fed is now seeing inflation somewhat less temporarily than it was initially. And that makes the market take a little more risk.
Powell stated earlier that job growth will increase in the coming months and inflation will fall if temporary supply problems are resolved. According to Powell, the Federal Reserve must be “very humble “about its ability to pick up a signal from the economic figures given the “unusual setting of an economy opening up again.”
On Monday, President John Williams of the New York Fed said that employment is far from the target level, and that the central bank is therefore keeping interest rates low for the time being.
We think that the euro can still rise to $ 1.20, but then it will drop back to $ 1.19, because the Fed is starting to reduce its purchasing program during the year. Before the end of the year we expect a euro exchange rate of $ 1.17.
British economy is in slowdown
Economic activity in the United Kingdom slowed down in June. This was shown on Wednesday by preliminary figures from Markit Economics.
The UK’s composite Purchasing Managers Index fell from 62.9 in May to 61.7 in June. The prognosis was expected to be 62.0.
Industry and the service sector have seen their activity grow slightly less rapidly.
The Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector decreased from 62.9 to 61.7. The industry index fell from 65.6 to 64.2. The forecast for services was 62.0 and for industry 64.0.
An index position greater than 50 indicates growth, while less than 50 means contraction.
On Friday, may it is the analyst is concerned more and more exciting, with the publication of the final confidence of the Americans about the of June, by the university of Michigan, which also has a inflation index over the next 12 months will be issued. That figure can still cause movement in case of a remarkable deviation.
The purchasing manager indices from the eurozone had virtually no impact on Wednesday, even if they were good for the eurozone and better than expected for industry with a stable figure. The economy of Germany made a prosperous impression. The Japanese economy contracted in June as the industrial Purchasing Managers ‘ Index declined. In the United States on Wednesday, attention will also be paid to the preliminary purchasing managers index for June, as well as the sales of new homes and weekly oil stocks.
On Wednesday there will also be speeches, performances and presentations by Vice-President of the European Central Bank Luis de Guindos, ECB President Christine Lagarde, US Secretary of Finance Janet Yellen, who accounts for the 2022 budget to a Senate Committee, and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank Jens Weidmann.
The euro recorded flat on Wednesday at $ 1,1939. The European currency recorded 0.2 percent lower at £0.8548. The British pound rose by 0.2 percent on Wednesday and stood at $ 1,3966. The dollar recorded unchanged at 6,4793 Chinese yuan. The dollar won 0.2 percent today, scoring 110,9220 yen.